This is the question 21 million bitcoiners are asking: Will the Web3 revolution ever happen? In an endless crypto winter, and as the resounding bankruptcy of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange platform shakes the ecosystem, we lay out the controversy with selected arguments and return to the 2000s.
Do you know “The Abyss of Disappointment”? We are not talking about some kind of Chateaubriand-style existential despair, but about the fate assigned to all emerging technologies, somewhere between an almost depressive state and a salutary return to reality. This seemingly inevitable fate will happen once it reaches the “peak of over-expectations” — if Gartner’s famous hype curve is to be believed. and l Its version is 2022the US consulting firm positions Web3 not far from the extreme escape, while NFTs are already beginning to slide towards the bottom of the pit.
Crypto winter never ends
Is Web3 dead even before it was born? Should we give up on this promise of a new web, a revolution enabled by blockchain, a “new golden age of the internet” free from the control of platforms, where everyone can control their data, where power and value will be decentralized to some extent? Is the encrypted web too good to be true? It is true that in addition to the media hysteria about it, the year 2022 was marked by a never-ending crypto winter…
Since its all-time high in November 2021, the market has Digital currencies 70% loosened. Its main currency, Bitcoin, rose from $67,000 to $19,000 in less than a year. Over the same period, the cryptocurrency market has wiped out more than $2 billion in market cap. Why do we owe this Alcohol market – Are traders pointing to a prolonged market decline of at least 20%, dampening investor sentiment in the aftermath? In question, the geopolitical context is clear, but also the rise in interest rates, decided by central banks to try to control inflation. In September 2022, the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) raised its key rate for the fifth time this year, setting it at around 3.25%. “Increasingly expensive” funds favor safe havens, to the detriment of riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies. Where we see at the same time that it is not enough to escape from the regulation and control of countries to escape from the economic situation and monetary policies.
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And if we compare this amazing collapse to that which another one went through tecmania ? It’s “Back to the Future” to 2YK and The dotcom bubble whats the financial times in article In July 2022. The exercise is attractive, because the common points call for: enthusiasm for a technology with revolutionary potential, called the Internet, which would, among other things, make it possible to escape from the control of the political and economic establishment, to restore power to individuals through the Internet … Sound familiar? The similarity also relates to the pace and scale of events: eight months after the peak of the Internet bubble in March 2000, listed technology companies have lost 60% of their value, or about $1.7 billion …
for Crypto enthusiasts, It is precisely this evidence that behind the fugitive speculation can be hidden a permanent technological revolution. It’s hard to argue that the Internet has already found its place in our lives (so much so that the question now is rather how our lives can find their life in this hyper-connected society, but that’s another story). Then it will be enough for the representatives of the cryptocurrency world to grit their teeth while waiting for the melt – or rather, the “ramp of clarifications”, on which applications appear and momentum is generated, and the “productivity plateau”, when it finally finds its market, to resume Gartner methodology.
Tangible applications are undoubtedly what the blockchain and its ecosystem lack most. Martha Bennett, principal analyst at Forrester specializing in blockchain and artificial intelligence, was in the 1990s chief technology officer at Prudential Insurance. in financial times Whoever asks her, she sees that it is too early to tell, but she nonetheless points out that in 1995 the applications of the Internet were clear: access to information, email, and so on. In October 2022, Daniel Glazman, a French programmer and former co-chair of W3C’s CSS Working Group, stated that “in 11 years, in the BTC era, the web has revolutionized humanity’s access to information and commerce on 300 million major websites.”
good guys vs. the wicked
web3, Metaverse, decentralized, fungible, non-fungible or semi-fungible tokens (yes, that exists too). While companies have long been interested in “blockchains,” no truly killer app has emerged. For Gartner, it will take between two and 10 years for the majority of blockchain innovation to reach maturity — the time needed to overcome technical and regulatory challenges. Some make the analogy with cloud technologies that took twenty years to deploy on a large scale.
In their note, Gartner analysts urge market watchers not to throw away cryptocurrency with the shower water, distinguish between technologies and the more or less honest intentions of those who manipulate them, and even specify: with new technologies, much earlier and faster than the good guys. It takes time for benign use cases to emerge, and even longer for security and anti-fraud systems to be deployed. »
“Scams, ticking bombs and storytelling”
But the camp of skeptics and antiweb3 is hardly convinced and is investing social networks to say so. Researchers, developers, designers, academics… raise their voices to condemn what could be at best a useless fad, and at worst a massive scam. so Stephen Diehla computer engineer, tweeted all the bad things he thinks about the question to his 60,000 followers: “Web3 startups = scam companies + time bombs”, “All games playing for profit are scams”, “There is not much difference between bitcoin and Dogecoin.Both are speculative and speculative assets whose demand is only generated by the art of storytelling”…don’t throw it anymore.
Olivier Blazy, professor of computer security at Polytechnique, is interested in the computer security promised by Web3. Because, contrary to popular belief, relying on a technology known to be tamper-proof does not protect against security breaches: poor electronic signature verification is a case in point… Developer Molly White meticulously documents on her blog “Web3 works great” Web3 damages, from bugs to hacking, including misappropriation. As I write this, the counter on the homepage shows over $11 billion lost, stolen, or defrauded in Web3 applications.
But the ideological rhetoric also poses a problem for crypto-skeptics. By virtue of everything symbolwe are closer to small ownership than to the sharing economy, as we have shown DNA Kevin Shaggy, from the Hérétique Collection. This Science Po professor at Web3 sees a new iteration of the American Dream, embodied in the fantastic financial success promised to parties intrepid to conquer these new lands. Not too far from the libertarian ideology, where the logic of the market applies everywhere, without state intervention, which inspires many Silicon Valley pundits, such as Elon Musk or Peter Thiel …
for Scott Galloway, Web3 is nothing more than a nonsensical tech buzzword. The famous professor of marketing at New York University thinks it should be renamed “Web2.01”, It indicates the concentration of power already in the hands of Web2 players. On the key issue of democratization, one can ask what the consequences will be of the development of these “proofs”, which validate transactions on the blockchain: proof of stake, or Proof of stake – which Ethereum just transformed its infrastructure with an update merge – It is definitely less power consuming than proof of work, or Proof of work , but favors those who already own a cipher. For a decentralized internet, we would have known better.
Waiting for Web5?
for Tim O’Reilly, Internet legend and inventor of the term Web 2.0, “Power will always find new ways to centralize itself. The entire history of the computer industry has been guided by radical openness, leading to massive innovation and later closure.” Jack Dorsey thinks Web3 is already dead. He, too, believes that “nobody owns Web3. Venture capital firms and limited partnerships are the owners.” What do you do next? web 5, He went. The founder of Twitter is already proposing to add Web2 and Web3, in a new project…
So is Web3 flawed in design (imperfect, flawed, by construction) or is it technologically immature? At the time that the Minister Delegate for Digital Transformation, Jean-Noel Barrot, wants Support the NFT industry With public funds from France 2030 and “mastering Web 3 templates so as not to depend on foreign powers”, the answer to this important question is not clear at all. As mentioned before financial times, the tools that form the foundations of our connected uses — Facebook and social networking, the mobile Internet powered by iPhone creation, or the cloud with Amazon Web Services, among others — are finally here long after the explosion. Internet bubble. But, whether Web3 takes shape or not, the pros and cons can come together on one point: Too long Web2.0It’s time to help make that dream come true on the internet, where everyone is the owner of their identity and their data.
This article is taken from Trend book 2023Deciphering 20 Major Sectors of the Economy, 368 pages. Available for pre-order now.