real estate | The sale time has not come yet

Home sales fell 1% across Canada over the summer. For now, prices remain stable in some regions while continuing to rise in others. Buyers do not yet have access to large liquidation sales.

Posted at 11:00 am

Isabelle Dube

Isabelle Dube
The press

National home sales fell slightly by 1% in August 2022, new statistics from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show, while the number of newly listed properties fell by 5.4%, with the exception of Montreal, where new listings of July to barely turbulent August.

In Quebec, 6,406 properties were sold in July and 5,929 in August. Year-on-year, from August 2021 to August 2022, sales are down 15%.

“It is not easy to draw conclusions about the month of August. Traditionally, active listings have trended downward,” Charles Brant, director of market analysis services at the Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers of Quebec (APCIQ), explained over the phone.

“It is possible that the month of August was not very representative or exaggerated the trend a bit,” he continues. We’ll see what happens in September. Perhaps the market will stabilize a bit in September before continuing to decline in terms of sales and prices over the next few months. »

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Comparing the prices recorded in August 2021 to August 2022, we observe a 9% increase in single-family house prices in Quebec. This increase is due to the price spike in May when buyers looked to buy a property ahead of the rate hike and July 1st.

If the price increase was 18.9% in 2021, the ACI predicts an increase of 16.8% for 2022 and a slight increase of 0.5% in 2023.

“All the gains from the beginning of the year through the peak in May were pretty much wiped out in Montreal,” observes APCIQ’s Charles Brant. Compared to the beginning of the year, we are almost on par. »

Charles Brant says the overbidding peaked in the first quarter of 2022, leading to strong demand pressures in the market and strong price growth “which was almost speculative.”

Currently, the proportion of sales that are completed as a result of an outbidding process is falling sharply. Fewer and fewer houses are selling for more than the list price.

“It shows that the price acceleration is over and that it is finally opening the door to more negotiations and more sales being made after a conditional offer. We’re getting back to some normalcy. »

However, the full impact of the rise in interest rates is not visible. The next rise, albeit more moderate, should change the market picture further.

“The market shouldn’t collapse because there is a structural supply deficit, not enough construction, and household economic health is still pretty good,” says Charles Brant. The shock of the interest rate hike was partially absorbed. »

However, a recession and a rise in the unemployment rate could change the situation.

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