Still at the top, François Legault’s CAQ is losing feathers among voters seeking stronger opposition, a new Léger poll shows. In Quebec, where the struggle seems to be growing bitter, the Conservatives are closing the gap again.
“It’s really moving,” says pollster Jean-Marc Léger. “There is a downward movement [de 5 %] for the QAK. »
With that, Prime Minister Legault is no longer moving so easily toward the “strong mandate” he wants on October 3.
By collecting 41% of intentions, his training is sailing on some unfavorable currents and the CAQ is returning to its pre-pandemic support.
It still dominates among Francophones with a massive 50% support.
There is a real “good fight” going on in Quebec between the CAQ and Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives.
For the third year in a row, the right formation closed the gap, this time receiving 26% of the intentions in the region versus 40% for the CAQ.
François Legault, on the other hand, received 51% support there in April. “There is a ripple effect,” says Mr. Léger.
This probe confirms that Quebecers “have changed their minds” and that 57% of them are looking for more resistance.
“People want the CAQ not to be alone […] They don’t want a strong majority,” he analyses.
battle of the opposition
However, no opposition makes significant gains. The other parties almost all get a single extra point.
According to him, “it’s moving”, but with the opposition dispersed, the effect could only be a reduction in the overwhelming majority projected for the CAQ.
The struggle for official opposition status is taking shape between Québec Solidaire and the Liberals. “The election campaign is the opposition’s struggle,” emphasizes Jean-Marc Léger.
Interesting fact, 27% of people are convinced that one day the solidary Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois will be prime minister.
The arrival of Drainville
The CAQ’s decline also occurs after the arrival of strong candidates with a sovereignty past, Bernard Drainville and Caroline St-Hilaire.
The pollster notes that these announcements had no positive impact on voting intentions.
He says defectors are finding it increasingly difficult to get elected.
According to Jean-Marc Léger, citizens are primarily worried about their wallets and the inflation crisis. “It’s a return to normal,” he said.
The CAQ would form the best government to deal with a recession, according to 40% of respondents.
They also believe a tax cut would be the right measure to deal with inflation and the cost of living, giving Dominique Anglade’s already pledged Liberals a head start.
“People want solutions,” says Léger. “In addition to another $500, the Legault government must promise a tax cut or it will be overtaken by the Liberal Party. »
But despite the Liberal leader’s best efforts to restore her image with the electorate, particularly non-Francophones, she is struggling to climb the slope.
The Conservatives now win over 22% of Anglophones.
Shock at the CAQ
The pollster also measured Quebecers’ patriotic sentiment depending on which political formation they vote for.
In the CAQ, 43% of voters would vote for sovereignty in a referendum and 42% would vote against.
“Sooner or later there will be a constitutional debate at the CAQ,” predicts Mr. Léger.
Among supporters of solidarity, only 39% support sovereignty.
For its part, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s Parti Québécois “is becoming popular again,” notes the pollster.
He is the second most popular choice for many voters.
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