More than 100,000 homes, apartments and public housing are missing to balance supply and demand in the housing market, the Association of Construction and Housing Professionals of Quebec (APCHQ) suggests in a study published Monday.
• Also read: “I’ll camp on the street”: The housing shortage is taking its toll
To reach this conclusion, the APCHQ relied on the housing shortage in the sales market, the housing shortage to arrive at what was considered a balanced 3% vacancy rate, and the number of people on the waiting lists eligible for social housing .
“The current housing shortage is responsible for rising prices in the resale market as well as upward pressure on rental housing rents. The only way to sustainably reduce real estate overheating is to increase supply,” said APCHQ economics director Paul Cardinal.
According to calculations by the association, the lack of real estate led to price jumps of 16% in 2020, then 19% in 2021, in real estate prices, all real estate together. It must be said that at the end of 2021 there were just under 2.8 properties listed per sale, a rate far from a balanced ratio which is closer to 8 to 10 listings/sale.
Hear Olivier Bourque, business journalist at the mic Yasmine Abdefadel on QUB Radio:
Finding a balance point would require 58,000 more homes to be built by the end of 2021, the APCHQ found.
On the residential side, it would have taken around 15,000 additional units to see a 3% vacancy rate in Quebec by the end of 2021, APCHQ calculated.
“However, this estimate can be considered as a minimum here, since on the one hand there are a few agglomerations for which the vacancy rate was not available and on the other hand the rural regions (centre with less than 10,000 inhabitants) are not examined by CMHC,” the organization stated.
In addition to this data, there are 37,000 people waiting for social housing as of December 31, 2020.
More than half of the housing deficit is in the Montreal metropolitan area, with a deficit of 9,900 units, 30,300 condominiums and 23,529 public housing, APCHQ found.
The race to catch up also promises to be difficult given the lack of labor in the construction industry, the increased cost of building materials and the rise in interest rates.