This is called total dominance.
The latest poll published in The newspaper confirms not only that the CAQ has ended its descent, but that it is now on the rise.
After a broadly approved budget and a victory in the Marie Victorin by-election, the CAQ’s re-election appears to be on track.
With 44% of voting intentions today, a 27 percentage point lead over the PLQ, François Legault’s party could easily elect more than 100 MPs out of 125.
One can even think of opening the book of records of political rule. For the nostalgic, we’re not far from Duplessis 1948 and Bourassa 1973.
The real racing takes place in the rear peloton, among the opposition figures splitting the government’s opposition votes.
who can ride
What if I told you that Éric Duhaimes PCQ might come second and form the official opposition?
Are you laughing already?
This is far from the case today, let’s get that straight.
But the latest Léger poll announces movements that are not yet perceptible.
First, the PCQ’s vote looks solid.
71% of voters say their choice is final. More than any other party.
The oppositions are on tectonic plates: more than half of the PQ and Solidarity can still change their mind before the election.
For QS, these numbers must be frightening. Anything would lead to believing that the Left Party would rise in the polls.
Their ideas are championed in the media, their media coverage is positive, they champion real causes, GND is valued…
However, QS stagnates at around 15%. In ten years, their average in the polls has risen by no more than 5%.
The Liberals are threatened by the creation of a party devoted exclusively to Anglophones.
Combined with a historically low reading among recents (46%), the Liberal boat is sinking. Anglade has no choice but to take out the lifeboats and save his last few supporters. The Franco vote is already in the water, sacrificed.
Which brings us to this conclusion: The only growing party is the PCQ.
And he could enjoy an election under the healthcare umbrella.
There are differences between the positions of the CAQ, the PLQ, the PQ and the QS in the field of health, but these are not serious. Few voters could identify her.
Whether on COVID or on the universality of care, it is Éric Duhaime who embodies the divergence. And that could benefit him.
Another factor could stand him in good stead: Pierre Poilievre.
Duhaime and Poilievre are alter egos. We’re witnessing a disagreement over their ideas, like that National Post in this week. A meeting of opinions about their methods, we might add, in their tribal and unabashed way of practicing politics.
Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada’s Conservative Party, could legitimize Éric Duhaime’s presence in Quebec politics.
The Quebecers will soon define an opponent at CAQ.
The oppositions are divided into different archipelagos: QS in Montreal, the PLQ west of Montreal, the PCQ in Quebec, and the PQ in Bas-Saint-Laurent.
You never know how public opinion will develop.
But one thing remains certain: Quebecers must take the Duhaime hypothesis seriously.
The opposition parties even more so.
When asked, “Is your election final at the provincial level, or is it possible that you may change your mind?” 71% of Quebec Conservative Party voters say their election is final.
Source: Léger survey (April 21, 2022)